Heb dit voor mijn engelstalige blog geschreven en heb even geen zin om het te vertalen. 😉
As promised here an update on XAU
Yesterday gold pierced through the 21 EMA which was accompanied by large volume, which is in my opinion a sign that the big guys are laying of gold. We managed however to close above this very 21 EMA, reinstating it as support for now. Today we opened with a tweezer which indicates that there a good chance we will close the day with a green candle. Unfortunately this view is not supported by the indicators at all. OsMA posted a red bigger than Friday’s bar which is bearish, Stochastics both weekly and daily are bearish and have room to even get worse and volume as mentioned increased during the sell off.
To find some good swing trades we will switch to 4 hour chart to see what is going on there. First of all we see that ADX has fallen below 30 which indicates to me that the uptrend in this time frame has come to an end and that we are ranging for now. Stochastics left overbought and is on its way down suggesting that price will follow suit. OsMA does not concur with this view however and turned in fact bullish. With ADX below 30 however I put less emphassis on OsMA becuase this indicator works better during trends.
Since I am currently bearish on gold I will not take long trades at the moment.
I will take a short trade as soon as price breaks through the 21 EMA of the daily chart and retest it as resistance on the 4 hour chart. Stop loss will be put just above the 21 EMA with twice the spread as padding. Profit target will be the 138.2% fibonacci level of the green fib to which price snapped perfectly, at 1102 minus some padding. This fib level by the way perfectly coincides with the 61.8% fib level of the aqua fib up, which gives this level even more significance.
Hope this will help you own analysis of gold and as always will I update you as things evolve.