16 maart 2011 om 11:35 #82926GertjeLid
Global stocks are trading mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index down -0.71% and June S&Ps down -4.90 points. The dollar and Treasuries are high on increased safe-haven demand and crude oil jumped over $1 a barrel after Bahrain suspended stock market trading as its government declared a state of emergency and let Gulf nation troops into the country to quell anti-government protests. The Middle East unrest outweighed concerns about radiation leaks from a Japanese nuclear plant damaged by last week’s earthquake and tsunami. The euro fell against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s long-term credit rating 2 levels to A3 from A1 and kept a negative outlook, which implies further downgrades in the future. European bank stocks weakened after Portugal’s credit rating was cut with BNP Paribas down 2.3%. Feb Euro-Zone CPI rose an as-expected +2.4% y/y, its fastest pace in 2-1/4 years and Q4 Euro-Zone labour costs rose a more-than-expected +1.6% y/y, which will keep the pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates. On the positive side, Feb UK jobless claims unexpectedly fell -10,200, their biggest decline in 8 months to 1.45 million, their lowest level in 2 years and a sign the labor market is continuing to recover.
The Asian stock markets today closed higher with Japan up +5.68%, Hong Kong +0.10, China +1.38%, Taiwan +1.09%, Australia +0.65%, Singapore +0.85%, South Korea +2.03%, India +1.05%. Japanese stocks rebounded from the 2-day sell-off that sent valuations to a 28-month low. The advance was limited, however after further temblors struck Japan and as clouds of white smoke started rising from reactor buildings at eh crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi Plant. Toyota Motor climbed 9.1% after the company said it would restart production at 7 parts plants in Japan from tomorrow. The BOJ pumped an additional 5 trillion yen into the financial system today in one-day operations on top of the 8 trillion yen yesterday and record 15 trillion yen on Monday. Tokyo Electric has begun rolling blackouts across Japan that will continue until the end of April in an attempt to conserve energy lost from the damage to its nuclear facility. Factories have suspended or reduced operations and as a result Goldman Sachs estimates if the power blackouts continue through the end of June, Japan’s GDP will contract at an annual 2% pace in Q2 and if the blackouts continue through December, the economy will keep contracting for the year.
US Economic Previews
Mortgage apps – The markets will be watching for any follow-through on last week’s surge in mortgage activity, which was likely due to the recent decline in mortgage rates. The MBA mortgage applications index last week rose by +15.5%, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +12.5% and the refinancing sub-index up +17.2%. The 30-year mortgage rate in the week ended March 10 rose by 1 bp to 4.88% but is still down by 17 bp from the 10-month high of 5.05% posted in the week ended Feb 10. Last week’s 12.5% increase in the purchase sub-index took the index to a new 2-month high, which sparked some hopes that the U.S. housing market may yet see the spring buying that the market has been hoping for. However, the purchase sub-index is still well below the 10-month high of 210.9 posted in early December 2010.
Housing starts – Today’s Feb housing starts report is expected to show a decline of -4.9% to 567,000 following the surge of +14.6% to 596,000 seen in January. Meanwhile, Feb building permits are expected to rise +1.2% to 570,000 following the -10.2% decline to 563,000 seen in January. Last month’s 14.6% increase in housing starts was less than impressive for two reasons: (1) the rebound was only enough to bring housing starts to roughly the middle of the sideways 2-year range, and (2) the increase in housing starts was mainly due to multi-family apartment complexes, not single-family homes. There is increasing demand for multi-family rental units with the huge number of foreclosures and short-sales and developers are responding to that demand. However, building in the single-family home market remains flat on its back with starts in January actually falling to a 2-year low of 413,000 units from 417,000 units in December.
PPI – Today’s Feb PPI report is expected to show another strong increase of +0.7% m/m, adding to the +0.8% increase seen in January. However, most of that increase will be due to food and energy prices. The Feb core PPI is expected to rise only +0.2% m/m following January’s increase of +0.5%. On a year-on-year basis, the Feb PPI is expected to rise to an 8-month high of +4.7% from +3.6% in Jan. The Feb core PPI is expected to rise to +1.8% from +1.6% in January. The FOMC yesterday in its post-meeting statement said that it was not particularly worried about the impact of energy and commodity prices on the inflation outlook. However, an increase today in the core PPI to +1.8% would be a new 1-1/2 year high and would suggest that higher energy and commodity prices are seeping into the generalized price level, at least at the producer level of the economy. The core CPI is also on its way higher but has only reached 1.0% so far, which is not a level of concern.
Current account – Today’s Q4 current account deficit is expected to narrow to -$110.0 billion from -$127.2 billion in Q3. The US current account deficit is in much better shape than seen during 2005-08, mainly because of the weak dollar and stronger US exports. However, there will be some near-term upward pressure on the deficit over the near-term due to the spike in oil prices. The US current account deficit in Q3 was 3.4% of GDP, which was much narrower than the record high of -6.5% of GDP seen in Q4-2005.
U.S. Stock Market
June S&Ps this morning are trading down -4.90 points. The US stock market yesterday slumped on concern a nuclear crisis in Japan might cripple the global economy but recovered some of its losses when the Fed said the economy was on a “firmer footing”: Dow Jones -1.15%, S&P 500 -1.12%, Nasdaq Composite -1.25%. The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all fell to 2-month lows. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over weakness from the plunge in Japan’s stock market to a 1-3/4 year low after Japan’s Prime Minister Kan warned of further radiation leaks at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant, which if not contained, could turn into the world’s largest nuclear disaster and derail the global economy, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb import prices (+1.4% m/m and +6.9% y/y versus expectations of +0.9% m/m and +6.3% y/y, (3) the plunge in energy and commodity producers after commodities sank on demand concerns, and (4) the escalation of civil unrest in the Middle East after Bahrain declared a 3-month state of emergency and allowed a second contingent of troops from the Gulf Cooperation Council into its country to support the government as anti-government protests intensified.
Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 9 months (+2.1 to 17.5 versus expectations of +1.0 to 16.4), (2) the as-expected +1 point increase in the Mar NAHB housing market index to a 10-month high of 17, which suggests a slight improvement in the US housing market, (3) the fall in crude oil prices to a 2-week low, which eases concern that rising energy prices will derail the economy, and (4) the post-FOMC meeting statement that said “The economic recovery is on a firmer footing and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually.”
Apple (AAPL) declined 1% in pre-market trading after JMP Securities cut its rating on the company to “market perform” from “market outperform.”
U.S. Interest Rate Markets
June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +4.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday moved sharply higher after global stock markets plunged on concern a nuclear crisis in Japan will derail the world economy but gave up most of their gains when the stock market recovered from its worst levels: TYM11 +5, FVM11 -0.5, EDU11 -0.5. The yield on the 10-year T-note tumbled to a 3-month low of 3.203%. Bullish factors included (1) a surge in safe-haven demand for Treasuries after global stock markets plunged on fears of an impending nuclear disaster in Japan, and (2) the post-FOMC meeting statement in which the Fed reaffirmed its plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 9 months (+2.1 to 17.5 versus expectations of +1.0 to 16.4), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb import prices (+1.4% m/m and +6.9% y/y versus expectations of +0.9% m/m and +6.3% y/y, and (3) the as-expected +1 point increase in the Mar NAHB housing market index to a 10-month high of 17, which suggest a slight improvement in the US housing market.
The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.20 yen and the euro/dollar -0.55 cents. The dollar index yesterday rallied on increased safe-haven demand after global equity markets plunged along with the unexpected decline in German economic sentiment but gave up all of their gains when the Fed reaffirmed their plan to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June: Dollar Index -0.021, USDJPY -0.911, EURUSD +0.00066. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen on speculation that insurers will repatriate dollar and euro assets back to yen to pay for earthquake damages, (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in Jan net long-term TIC flows, which indicates weakened foreign demand for US dollar assets, (3) the plunge in Treasury yields with the 10-year T-note yield falling to a 3-month low, which weakens the dollar’s interest rate differentials, and (4) the post-FOMC statement in which the Fed reaffirmed its plan to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after global stock markets plunged on fears of a Japanese nuclear disaster, (2) euro weakness after Mar German ZEW economic sentiment unexpectedly declined, and (3) comments from ECB President Trichet who said the package of economic-oversight rules adopted by EU finance ministers was “insufficient.”
April crude oil prices this morning are trading up +$1.41 a barrel and April gasoline is +2.78 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday sold-off to 2-week lows and settled sharply lower as concern the damage from Japan’s earthquake may reduce crude demand outweighed speculation of supply disruptions in the Middle East: CLJ11 -$4.01, RBJ11 -15.74. Bearish factors include (1) strength in the dollar, which discourages investment demand in commodities, and (2) speculation that crude oil demand in Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, will be reduced indefinitely as the country recovers from the worst earthquake in its recorded history. Bullish factors included (1) the action by Bahrain to declare a 3-month state of emergency and allow a second contingent of troops from the Gulf Cooperation Council into its country to support the government after a month of anti-government protests intensified, and (2) the statement from the IEA that Libya’s oil exports may be halted for “many months” because of damage to facilities and trade sanctions against Libya’s leader Muammar Qaddafi. Expectations for Wednesday’s weekly inventory report from the DOE are for crude oil supplies to rise +1.75 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to drop -2.0 million bbl, distillate inventories to fall -1.5 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to remain unchanged at 82.0%.
Metals prices this morning are trading higher: GCJ11 +$7.00, SIK11 +0.273 and HGK11 +0.098. Metals prices yesterday fell sharply as investors liquidated commodities on risk aversion due to the nuclear crisis in Japan: GCJ11 -$32.10, SIK11 -1.723, HGK11 -0.0495. Apr gold fell to a 3-week low, May silver dropped to a 2-week low and May copper slumped to a 2-3/4 month low. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the dollar, (2) a massive liquidation of commodity holdings by investors to raise cash for margin calls after global stock markets plunged as Japan’s nuclear crisis worsened, and (3) weakness in copper and concern global demand for industrial metals will weaken after several Japanese automakers and electronic companies halted production due to earthquake and tsunami damage. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for gold on an escalation of the civil unrest in the Middle East after Bahrain declared a 3-month state of emergency due to anti-government protests, and (2) stronger-than-expected US economic data on Mar Empire manufacturing which expanded at its best level in 9 months and indicates strong consumption of industrial metals.
Grain prices this morning are stronger: CK1 +5-1/4 cents, SK1 +27 cents, and WK1 +21-3/4 cents. The grain markets yesterday plummeted on concern that the earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan will slow the global economy and reduce demand for commodities: CK1 -30 cents limit-down, SK1 -70 cents limit-down, WK1 -53 cents. May corn fell to a 2-month low, May soybeans slid to a 3-month low and May wheat tumbled to a 3-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which discourages investment demand in commodities and may erode US grain export prospects, (2) an overall sell-off in commodities as investors liquidate their commodity holdings and move into cash on the uncertainty caused from Japan’s earthquake and nuclear crisis, and (3) the slump in gasoline, which undercuts ethanol prices and corn demand. A bullish factor was the statement from Russia’s Federal Hydrometeorogical Center that Russia may lose 10% of its winter grain crops this year due to adverse weather.
Meats & Softs
Meat prices yesterday slumped on overall commodity weakness along with concern Japanese meat demand might weaken: LCJ1 -30.00 limit-down, LHJ1 -10.75. Apr hogs fell to a 2-month low and Apr cattle slipped to a 1-week low. Softs yesterday settled sharply lower on concern that last week’s earthquake and tsunami to devastate Japan will limit global economic growth and demand for commodities: SBK1 -2.14, KCK1 -10.35, CCK1 -134, CTK1 -7.00 limit-down. May sugar slumped to a 3-month low, May coffee fell to a 1-month low, May cocoa slid to a 5-week low and May cotton posted a 2-week low.
Global Financial Calendar
US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, last market index +15.5% with purchase mortgage sub-index +12.5% and refinancing sub-index +17.2%.
0830 ET Feb housing starts expected —4.9% to 567,000, Jan +14.6% to 596,000. Feb building permits expected +1.2% to 570,000, Jan —10.2% to 563,000.
0830 ET Feb PPI expected +0.7% m/m and +4.7% y/y, Jan +0.8% m/m and +3.6% y/y. Feb PPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
0830 ET Q4 current account balance expected -$110.0 billion, Q3 -$127.2 billion.
1400 ET Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies to House subcommittee on the federal budget.
UK 0530 ET Feb UK jobless claims change expected +1,300, Jan +2,400. Feb claimant count rate expected 4.5%, Jan 4.5%.
0530 ET Jan UK avg weekly earnings expected +2.1% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +1.8% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0530 ET Jan UK avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +2.2% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +2.3% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0530 ET Jan UK ILO unemployment rate expected 7.9% 3-months, Dec 7.9% 3-months.
EUR 0600 ET Feb Euro-Zone CPI expected +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jab —0.7% m/m and +2.3% m/m
0600 ET Q4 Euro-Zone labour costs expected +1.0% y/y, Q3 +0.8% y/y.
CAN 0830 ET Jan Canada manufacturing sales expected +1.4% m/m, Dec +0.4% m/m.
JPN 1950 ET Jan Japan tertiary industry index expected +1.4% m/m, Dec —0.8% m/m.16 maart 2011 om 14:16 #103920Mr.EdenLid
Misschien dat dit in het Nederlands wat leesbaarder is?16 maart 2011 om 14:28 #103921joostvv2Lid
@Mr.Eden 20865 wrote:
Misschien dat dit in het Nederlands wat leesbaarder is?
kom er zelf ook lastig doorheen16 maart 2011 om 15:15 #103923GertjeLid
@Mr.Eden 20865 wrote:
Misschien dat dit in het Nederlands wat leesbaarder is?
Je mag het vertalen als je wilt…. 🙂
Is een dagelijkse nieuwsbrief, op vrijdagmorgen sturen ze een pdf van 14 kantjes A4 met marktinformatie.
Als niemand het leest, zeg het dan AUB. Stop ik met posten hiervan.16 maart 2011 om 16:17 #103925
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