Beleggers in perpetuele leningen

[blufhenk]

Vers van de pers uit rapport van Morgan Stanley voor beleggers die nog posities hebben in perpetuals:

The idea of non-called old-style Tier 1 counting as a form of perpetual Tier 2 capital (rather than simply a form of perpetual funding akin to senior debt) has received limited attention in the market. This may be because it is
not explicitly stated in the release and relies on tying together a variety of releases from the Basel Committee. Yet, we see this as a potential game-changer over the medium term, at the very least for the performance of low versus high
back-end steps.

This becomes even more of a potential risk when we consider it in light of the following:
• All new instruments being non-step – hence non-calls should be more commonplace going forward.
• SIFI buffers will likely be non-additive – hence banks will likely still need to maintain a certain amount of Tier 2 capital outstanding.
• A more generous approach to grandfathering, increasing the incentive for banks to leave non-steps outstanding.
• Regulators becoming increasingly cautious on calls, requiring banks to pre-finance securities coming to call.
• We would also highlight that Deutsche has been somewhat discretely joined in the ‘non-call club’ by a host of other names; hence, non-calls are by no means as rare as they once were. We will be returning to the above two topics in a forthcoming note.


Why We Are Changing Our View
As we detail above, our original view as to why Tier 1s would be called was linked to the idea that regulators were exclusively focused on core Tier 1 at the exclusion of all other types of capital, the importance of reputational risk and as non-called Tier 1 would not represent a cheap form of senior debt. We believe that the January release from the Basel Committee, coupled with the EC project to create an effective resolution regime in Europe, has changed this. As a result, Tier 2 capital and the amount of a total capital that a bank has outstanding will become an important source of capital for regulators in the future. What’s more, non-calls are by no means as rare as they once were, and new instruments will have no form of incentive to redeem going forward. When we couple this change in approach from the regulators with current valuations where there is no room for error (i.e., calls are fully priced in for the most part), then this makes us much more cautious on low back-end Tier 1s. To be clear, we still believe that the strongest banks will continue to call for the time being; we are more concerned about a shock non-call from a mid-sized issuer, most likely in LT2, which could impact the trading levels of the whole market – and in Tier 1s, these trading levels are on the whole fully priced to the call date. Again, we will return to this topic in a follow-up note.

[Armijn]

Dank Henk voor dit bericht. Ik zat voor de kredietcrisis zo dik in die Perpetuele leningen (a 6.5% rente van oa. Credit L en stukken van de Rabobank) dat ik op papier 2/3 van de waarde verloor omdat ze dachten dat ze niet meer terug zouden gaan betalen (het dividend, vanwege de kleine regeltjes). Heb toen zelfs nog beetje bijgekocht op een koers van 40%. Toen de koers redelijk snel weer steeg en de 80% aantikte (ca 1.5jaar geleden) heb ik alles eruit gegooid (achteraf veelste vroeg) en besloten er nooit meer in te gaan.

Was in mijn ogen een mooi concept maar als het mis gaat sta je achteraan en krijg je nooit meer wat.

[blufhenk]

Ik kon me nog herinneren dat je er destijds in hebt gezeten. Je hoeft naar mijn idee ook niet enorm angstig te zijn als je nu perpetuele leningen hebt van bijvoorbeeld een staatsbank (veel Franse en een ABN AMRO) of een Rabobank. Maar met name bij de Ierse leningen wordt het nu wel duidelijk wat de risico's zijn en/of waren van dergelijke perpetuals die door alle banken in portefeuilles van particulieren werden geduwd. Als je beetje rondzoekt zie je dat veel particulieren hier ook de vermogensbeheerder met succes op hebben aangesproken.
Desondanks blijf enorm kritisch op obligaties van financiele waarden want er komen nog afschrijvingen aan bij banken waar je u tegen zegt. Griekenland is veiliger op de huidige niveau's!